Saturday, March 18, 2006

Oil prices won't go down

日本語は英語の後だ (Japanese version follows English)。

My plan for my next car is to get a hybrid car of some sort. My current car is a 5 year old Subaru, has only 55,000 miles on it, and is running fine, so I don't think I will be replacing it any time soon. But my expectation is that oil prices will not go down any time soon, and it is quite likely they will go higher, so getting a more fuel efficient car would be a smart step to take.

Even if the oil companies expand and are able to get more oil out of the ground, it is only a matter of time before something major happens that causes prices to go up a lot. Most of the oil which is produced comes form unstable areas, like the Middle East, Nigeria, Indonesia, etc.

Right now, the most likely problem that I see will be something in the Middle East. Perhaps a terrorist attack on the Saudi oil production facilities. Or maybe is Iraq has a civil war, which likely will affect other oil producing countries in the area (especially Iran).

And the hurricanes last year also should have been a major warning to us that the area where most of the oil arrives into the U.S. at is not safe from weather. And the predictions on global warming are such that there will be more storms per year, not less, in the future.

Not a pretty picture, but an unfortunate reality for our time.

日本語:
次の車を買う時、ハイブリッド車を買うつもりだ。今の持っている車は2001年Subaruで、89,000キロで、状態がいいなので、もう直ぐ買わないだろう。でも石油価格の高値維持だと思う。そして石油価格が上げるはずだ。だから燃費の良い車を買うのはいい、ね。

石油会社を発展させると、油田開発上げても、何か困る事があたから、世界の石油価格が上げるのは時間の問題だ。石油は不安定領域(例えば中東)から来た。

今、中東のテロ攻撃だと思う。サウジアラビアのオイルファシリティへのテロ攻撃に衝撃を受けるだろう。それともイラクで全面的内戦になると、他の近くに国(特にイラン)も戦争する。

そして去年のハリケーンは人へ大きな警告を発するはずだ。メキシコ湾岸に沢山オイルファシリティがあるので天気で困るようになる。多分地球温暖化の傾向は継続すると予想している。

いいじゃない、でもこの時の悲しい現実だと思う。

4 Comments:

At 8:36 PM, Anonymous Nathan Miller said...

Wow! Your Japanese is great! I have lived in Japan for about 7 years, always nice to come across someone with an interest in Japanese! Thanks for the comment over at my site! Yes, I do ride a road bike myself! Did a 100 miler yesterday, had great weather!

 
At 11:00 PM, Blogger PeterD said...

Nathan - thanks for stopping by. I am enjoying working my way backwards though your Vlogs.

For everyone else - Nathan has a Video Blog at http://www.bicycle-sidewalk.com/. Not about bicycles (as the name would make you believe), but about his travels and living in Japan. Quite interesting.

 
At 11:02 AM, Blogger PeterD said...

This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

 
At 11:03 AM, Blogger PeterD said...

There was an article posted online today from Fortune magazine that talks a bit about gasoline prices. Interesting read.

 

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