Wednesday, January 03, 2007

2007 Predictions (English only)

Here is what I think will happen in 2007 (and beyond):

I suspect that I will kayak more, and find time to ride my bike more. I already have a few plans for vacations coming together, including Mexico for kayaking in March and camping at Lake Tahoe in July. No plans to go to Japan right now, but I would like to go back soon.

My consulting work seems to be getting a little more busy, which will somewhat limit my time for trips, but I should still be able to arrange it so that I get to play. The bike shop I am involved with is looking better and better every month, so it is looking like it will be a long-term successful business.

US Economy:
I don't think that what the US Government has been doing (cutting taxes, running deficits, etc.) has helped our economy, and the economy is currently showing strains. I think that we are heading towards a worsening economy for a while. Could be very ugly if there is a housing bubble, and it pops.

World Economy:
I have long thought that China's half-controlled economy was at risk, and still do. Having a government calling shots works, so long as they call the right shots. But I think they will slip up at some point, with an impact on the whole world. Probably not next year or even the year after, but I think in the next 5 years.

I suspect Bush will basically ignore the recommendations that the Iraq Policy Group came up with, and even into 2008 we will still have over 100k soldiers in Iraq and the situation continuing to look more and more bleak as time goes on. I don't see any way for us to"win", so I think Iraq will become more of a civil war.

US Politics:
Now that Democrats are taking control, there should be a little more balance and the worst of the new laws will be stopped. But even though Bush is calling for both sides working together, I don't believe he will be willing to, so I suspect that after a few months of a few new laws going through (higher minimum wage, etc.), the two sides will split and go back to fighting instead of moving the country forward.

If this comes true (worsening economy and still in Iraq), I suspect that Bush will continue on as he has, and will likely do more to help the Democrats in the next election than they can do for themselves.

Well, not a very positive outlook. Hopefully I will be proven wrong in some areas.

What do you think? Any predictions? Any agreement or disagreement with what I said?



At 7:21 AM, Anonymous Ken said...

No predictions on Japanese politics? 残念ですね・・・but I'm pretty with you on the Iraq statements. There doesn't seem to be a way to win; pull out and it's not finishing what was started. Stay there and only delay the bloodbath of a full on civil war that is inevitable. The former political ruling group was left out of the political process and will jump at an opportunity to get even. I used to think that the US made a mistake by including the likes of Yoshida and Kishi in the post-WW2 Japanese government, but the situation in Iraq, which is nearly perfectly opposite in terms of governing class, is showing that they did the right thing, if stability was the ultimate end.

At 8:55 AM, Blogger PeterD said...

That is interesting - I never compared this situation to post World War II Japan.

At 9:13 AM, Anonymous Ken said...

I guess I can't help it...studying that situation in Japan so much. And at one point State was constantly drawing the comparison, as though MacArthur had been a neo-con. There was a parade of clownery disguised as journalism comparing the two for a bit, saying Iraq had an opportunity to do what Japan did after WW2. Ignoring, of course, the fact that Japan had been highly industrialized, had a ready market to export to and had something resembling a representative government before the war. At any rate, Iraq's been pretty badly bungled...


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